Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
